Quotes of the Day

When Utah's Republican Party holds its nominating convention on Saturday, the conservative insurgency could claim a significant scalp. Senator Robert Bennett, the three-term GOP stalwart, is lagging badly behind two Tea Party–fueled challengers. In a recent Salt Lake Tribune survey, Bennett garnered support from just 16% of state delegates, a figure eclipsed by attorney Mike Lee's 37% and entrepreneur Tim Bridgewater's 20%. Bennett's anemic polling has his antagonists clamoring at the prospect of ousting the cycle's first sitting Senator — and backers fearful that Bennett will earn the ignominious distinction of being the rare incumbent who fails even to crack his party's primary ballot.

Under Utah's peculiar primary system, the party's 3,500 state delegates — tapped by the 75,000 voters who turned out for local caucuses on March 23 — will cast secret ballots to winnow the candidate pool from eight to three, then vote again to narrow the race to two finalists. A candidate who tallies 60% of the vote would sidestep a primary and win the nomination outright; otherwise, the top pair proceeds to a June run-off. Citing his sagging status within a changing party, analysts have already penned Bennett's political obituary. "Bennett has almost no shot of getting more votes at the convention than Bridgewater and Lee," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, the firm that conducted the Tribune survey.

Such an outcome would be the bruising fall Tea Party members have frequently predicted but so far rarely forced. But Bennett, 76, would be an unlikely victim. The son of a former Utah Senator and grandson of a former Mormon church president, Bennett has long boasted sterling conservative bona fides, and easily won re-election to his third term in 2004 with 69% of the vote. A proponent of the flat tax and opponent of abortion, he earns stellar grades from interest groups like the National Rifle Association, the American Conservative Union and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Yet his support for bank bailouts, his sponsorship of an alternative health-care proposal that included an individual mandate and his robust defense of earmarks are anathema to the state's swelling coterie of right-wing activists.

"The main issue was TARP and the bailout votes," says David Kirkham, the Provo-based founder of the Utah Tea Party and a state delegate at Saturday's convention. When he was nominated at a local caucus, the first question Kirkham faced was whether he backed Bennett. "I said, Absolutely not," he says. "Everybody I talk to is very anti-Bennett."

Tea Party leaders and anti-Bennett groups have cast the Senator's plight as a harbinger for Republicans who fail to court newly energized conservative voters and heed the anti-incumbent winds buffeting Washington's elite. But other analysts say that is giving the Tea Party movement too much credit. They view Bennett's potential demise as the product of the blood-red state's unique nomination system, in which a few thousand delegates have the clout to choose a U.S. Senator for a few million residents. "Utah has the highest barrier for entry onto a ballot of any state in the country," says Kirk Jowers, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. "So the incentives are all toward kissing up to very, very few people."

Rob Jordan, an executive at the conservative organization FreedomWorks, which has marshaled its resources to support Mike Lee, says that Utah's system "allowed us to have a big impact without expending a lot of resources." FreedomWorks is trying to sway delegates' opinions with direct mail, robocalls and phone-bank campaigns. Another conservative organization, the Club for Growth, also has Bennett in its crosshairs, bombarding the Senator with negative ads.

"It's a perfect storm for Bennett," Kelly Patterson, a political-science professor at Brigham Young University, says of Utah's nomination process. "Normally someone like Senator Bennett would do really well in a primary. He would have the opportunity to attract moderate voters. But the convention is activist, and it favors candidates who can connect with activist delegates." Another recent Tribune poll underscores that argument; fully 39% of Utah Republican voters support Bennett's candidacy — a figure that far outstrips Lee's 20% and Bridgewater's 14%, and a near-mirror opposite of the survey that suggested the incumbent was limping toward the guillotine.

By their own admission, Utah's GOP delegates are a different breed. Nearly 70% consider themselves Tea Party supporters. They are weary of Washington's old-boy network and are eager to depose candidates who flunk ideological purity tests. And they want their voices heard. Kirkham, the Utah Tea Party organizer, says that if Bennett had sought out his detractors to talk policy, it might have softened the backlash. "I'm not chasing after you. You're a Senator. Great," Kirkham says. "We elected you. It's not like you're God."

But it's not like Bennett has been resting on his laurels either. He poured $2.5 million into his re-election campaign — more than 20 times the spending of his nearest foe — and has recently devoted much of his time to canvassing his home state and touting his accomplishments. (His attendance record in Congress has plummeted accordingly.) "It's retail politics at its ultimate," Dave Hansen, Utah's Republican Party chairman, says of Utah's system. Hansen, who has remained neutral in the race, argues that the small number of delegates requires candidates to court them face to face, a process that yields a more informed voter.

Still, does empowering a small group of voters to make that choice enhance democracy or stifle it? Jowers argues that apart from the keystone issues — states' rights and the economy — Republican delegates have profiles and hot buttons vastly different from those of the average party member. Those differences can disenfranchise some voters — including women, who comprised 55% of Utah GOP voters in 2008 but are comparatively underrepresented in the delegate pool. "It's kind of surreal," he says. "If he gets to the primary, then I would put my money on Bennett. But it's a real question whether he can get there."

As the campaign approaches its conclusion, Bennett is hoping for a boost from the endorsement of Mitt Romney, the state's most popular politician. He's also leaning heavily on his record and connections — the ranking minority member of the Rules Committee and an adviser to Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, Bennett has leveraged his spot on the Appropriations Committee to fund transportation and water projects — but that can have a downside in an anti-incumbent cycle. "He's reminding delegates how powerful he is and how effective he can be. [He's] making them come face to face with a serious choice," says Patterson. "It's about the only card he has left to play."

• Alex Altman
• With Tea Party activists convinced he's not conservative enough, Utah Republican Robert Bennett may be the rare incumbent who fails even to crack his party's primary ballot